Final 2003 Brassworld Pythagorean Analysis
Earlier this year this chart was offered to gain some idea of what teams might be over- or underperforming. Reasons for any deviation include managerial decisions and luck. Over 162 games, the numbers become more meaningful and by comparing what the final win totals are for each team vs expected win totals, we can gain appreciation for the efforts of the other managers as well as see that teams weren’t really as bad or as good as they seemed. (Deviations +/- 4 are not generally meaningful.) For example, Greenville won 87 games yet was predicted to win 79. This was the best performance of any manager by a playoff bound team. Maybe this luck/managerial genius will be constant year-to-year, but more likely, all things being equal, Greenville is really a .500 team and will have a hard time repeating this performance. For 2003, however, Greenville makes a strong case for Manager of the Year. In the mid year Pythagorean analysis, Greenville was close to Waukesha, just 2 games behind, but the analysis at that time suggested Waukesha was better and in fact over the remainder of the season, WAU pulled away and finished 10 games in front of GBS. Congratulations to Portland for best overall performance above expected.
Apologies for inclusions of columns 3,4, and 5; they are needed to perform calculations and I couldn’t remember how to delete them without causing errors in the spreadsheet.
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BRASSWORLD 2003 |
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Pythagorean Analysis |
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COBB |
Runs |
OppRuns |
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Proj W-L% |
Proj Wins |
Real Wins |
mgr
quality |
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Silver Sluggers |
734 |
981 |
538756 |
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1501117 |
0.359 |
58.1 |
53 |
(5.1) |
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Greenville Black Sox |
588 |
604 |
345744 |
364816 |
710560 |
0.487 |
78.8 |
87 |
8.2 |
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Rivendell Knights |
778 |
860 |
605284 |
739600 |
1344884 |
0.450 |
72.9 |
72 |
(0.9) |
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West Bend Rocks |
671 |
715 |
450241 |
511225 |
961466 |
0.468 |
75.9 |
68 |
(7.9) |
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Syracuse Sky Chiefs |
1008 |
706 |
1016064 |
498436 |
1514500 |
0.671 |
108.7 |
107 |
(1.7) |
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Waukesha Keglers |
825 |
662 |
680625 |
438244 |
1118869 |
0.608 |
98.5 |
97 |
(1.5) |
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962361 |
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RUTH |
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Plum Island Greenheads |
762 |
681 |
580644 |
463761 |
1044405 |
0.556 |
90.1 |
91 |
0.9 |
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Gotham City Gargoyles |
854 |
914 |
729316 |
835396 |
1564712 |
0.466 |
75.5 |
75 |
(0.5) |
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Portland Grays |
720 |
891 |
518400 |
793881 |
1312281 |
0.395 |
64.0 |
73 |
9.0 |
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San Bernadino
Stampede |
650 |
758 |
422500 |
574564 |
997064 |
0.424 |
68.6 |
68 |
(0.6) |
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Toontown Rabbits |
855 |
623 |
731025 |
388129 |
1119154 |
0.653 |
105.8 |
101 |
(4.8) |
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Williamsburg Burgesses |
778 |
776 |
605284 |
602176 |
1207460 |
0.501 |
81.2 |
86 |
4.8 |
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AARON |
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Annadale Anteaters |
664 |
635 |
440896 |
403225 |
844121 |
0.522 |
84.6 |
75 |
(9.6) |
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Buckeye Eclipse |
799 |
898 |
638401 |
806404 |
1444805 |
0.442 |
71.6 |
79 |
7.4 |
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Abilene Longhorns |
734 |
640 |
538756 |
409600 |
948356 |
0.568 |
92.0 |
92 |
(0.0) |
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Virginia Patriots |
809 |
634 |
654481 |
401956 |
1056437 |
0.620 |
100.4 |
90 |
(10.4) |
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Lafontaine Park Diamonds |
870 |
721 |
756900 |
519841 |
1276741 |
0.593 |
96.0 |
95 |
(1.0) |
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Port Richey Sandcranes |
628 |
874 |
394384 |
763876 |
1158260 |
0.340 |
55.2 |
61 |
5.8 |
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MAYS |
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Aspen Rainmakers |
712 |
572 |
506944 |
327184 |
834128 |
0.608 |
98.5 |
101 |
2.5 |
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Boston Braves |
600 |
841 |
360000 |
707281 |
1067281 |
0.337 |
54.6 |
62 |
7.4 |
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Maryland Mounders |
815 |
690 |
664225 |
476100 |
1140325 |
0.582 |
94.4 |
97 |
2.6 |
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Northwoods Moose |
723 |
858 |
522729 |
736164 |
1258893 |
0.415 |
67.3 |
59 |
(8.3) |
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Taggart Titans |
770 |
838 |
592900 |
702244 |
1295144 |
0.458 |
74.2 |
71 |
(3.2) |
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West Oakland Wolverines |
735 |
708 |
540225 |
501264 |
1041489 |
0.519 |
84.0 |
84 |
(0.0) |