Williamsburg Gazette July 1, 2003
Last month I submitted a Moneyball article. To follow up, this month I will offer two spreadsheets, the first documenting the dollars in millions spent per win by each team. By a good margin, the top teams continue to be Portland and San Bernadino in the Ruth Division, home of the beloved Burgesses who are only a tad extravagant by this measure. Virginia, LaFontaine Park, Syracuse, and Greenville all deserve honorable mention. Toontown appears to have slipped just a bit, but they are still above average.
The 2nd spreadsheet applies the baseball version of the Pythagorean Theorem to all Brassworld teams. Briefly, it has been shown that a team’s winning percentage is well approximated by the ratio of its runs scored squared to its runs scores squared + opponents runs scored squared. It has an average error of 4 games or so in a 162 game season; a greater deviation at 81 games might be expected. If a team is overperforming (Greenville) that may be its manager or just good luck; perhaps in the 2nd half Syracuse (which is performing as expected) might widen its lead and Greenville may tumble towards .500 ball. The Black Sox have a league best 23-10 record in one run games; can that hold up over the rest of the year? Waukesha, like the Sky Chiefs, appears to be the real deal and should battle Syracuse down to the wire, all things being equal.
In the Ruth, Toontown for all its domination, appears to be underperforming; either take the manager down a notch or blame it on luck and watch the Rabbits get even better in the 2nd half. Not only having a shrewd GM, Portland likewise has stretched every run en route to a record 4 wins better than expected. Portland’s manager has made the GM look even better. Other teams of interest include Port Richey and Boston; both of these teams despite being saddled with high costs/win have done better than expected. Give the managers some credit for making best of a motley crew of overpaid ballplayers. Finally the worst luck/managerial performance goes to Northwoods---playing 7 games worse than would be expected. One run game record is poor, 5-11, but even if it were 8-8, the Moose manager still has some ‘splainin to do.
|
MONEYBALL |
|
|
|
||||
|
BRASSWORLD 2003 |
American |
|
|
||||
|
COBB |
Contract$ |
Wins |
$$$/Win |
||||
|
Silver Sluggers |
25.6 |
29 |
0.88 |
||||
|
Greenville Black Sox |
42.8 |
46 |
0.88 |
||||
|
Rivendell Knights |
49.4 |
40 |
1.24 |
||||
|
West Bend Rocks |
42.8 |
34 |
1.26 |
||||
|
Syracuse Sky Chiefs |
48.7 |
52 |
0.94 |
||||
|
Waukesha Keglers |
48.6 |
48 |
1.01 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Total for Cobb division |
257.9 |
249 |
1.04 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
RUTH |
|
|
|
||||
|
Plum Island Greenheads |
44.8 |
45 |
1.00 |
||||
|
Gotham City Gargoyles |
39.3 |
34 |
1.16 |
||||
|
Portland Grays |
25.4 |
37 |
0.69 |
||||
|
San Bernadino Stampede |
25.1 |
36 |
0.70 |
||||
|
Toontown Rabbits |
48.1 |
51 |
0.94 |
||||
|
Williamsburg Burgesses |
39.2 |
38 |
1.03 |
||||
MONEYBALL |
|
|
|
||||
|
Total for Ruth division |
221.9 |
241 |
0.92 |
||||
|
National |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
AARON |
Contract$ |
Wins |
$$$/Win |
|
|||
|
Annadale Anteaters |
36.4 |
41 |
0.89 |
|
|||
|
Buckeye Eclipse |
37.9 |
42 |
0.90 |
|
|||
|
Abilene Longhorns |
48.1 |
44 |
1.09 |
|
|||
|
Virginia Patriots |
41.1 |
47 |
0.87 |
|
|||
|
Lafontaine Park Diamonds |
40 |
45 |
0.89 |
|
|||
|
Port Richey Sandcranes |
31.7 |
28 |
1.13 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Aaron Division Totals |
235.2 |
247 |
0.95 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
MAYS |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Aspen Rainmakers |
47.7 |
48 |
0.99 |
|
|||
|
Boston Braves |
35.1 |
31 |
1.13 |
|
|||
|
Maryland Mounders |
47 |
51 |
0.92 |
|
|||
|
Northwoods Moose |
25.7 |
26 |
0.99 |
|
|||
|
Taggart Titans |
31.6 |
34 |
0.93 |
|
|||
|
West Oakland Wolverines |
44.1 |
45 |
0.98 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Mays Division Totals |
231.2 |
235 |
0.98 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
Total Value of Contracts |
946.2 |
|
|||||
|
Average per team |
39.425 |
|
|||||
|
Average # of Wins |
40.5 |
|
|||||
|
Average $$$/Win |
0.97 |
|
|||||
|
Standard deviation |
0.14 |
|
|||||
|
BRASSWORLD 2003 |
|
|
x |
x |
x |
x |
|
Pythagorean Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COBB |
Runs |
OppRuns |
Proj W-L% |
Proj Wins |
Real Wins |
Manager
quality J |
|
Silver Sluggers |
386 |
476 |
0.397 |
32.1 |
29 |
(3.1) |
|
Greenville Black Sox |
268 |
290 |
0.461 |
37.3 |
46 |
8.7 |
|
Rivendell Knights |
410 |
418 |
0.490 |
39.7 |
40 |
0.3 |
|
West Bend Rocks |
326 |
351 |
0.463 |
37.5 |
34 |
(3.5) |
|
Syracuse Sky Chiefs |
481 |
362 |
0.638 |
51.7 |
52 |
0.3 |
|
Waukesha Keglers |
407 |
333 |
0.599 |
48.5 |
48 |
(0.5) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RUTH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Plum Island Greenheads |
397 |
351 |
0.561 |
45.5 |
45 |
(0.5) |
|
Gotham City Gargoyles |
397 |
441 |
0.448 |
36.3 |
34 |
(2.3) |
|
Portland Grays |
344 |
419 |
0.403 |
32.6 |
37 |
4.4 |
|
San Bernadino Stampede |
319 |
368 |
0.429 |
34.8 |
36 |
1.2 |
|
Toontown Rabbits |
427 |
287 |
0.689 |
55.8 |
51 |
(4.8) |
|
Williamsburg Burgesses |
384 |
408 |
0.470 |
38.0 |
38 |
(0.0) |
Pythagorean Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AARON |
Runs |
OppRun |
Proj
W-L% |
Proj
Wins |
Real Wins |
Manager
quality J |
|
Annadale Anteaters |
347 |
327 |
0.530 |
42.9 |
41 |
(1.9) |
|
Buckeye Eclipse |
439 |
453 |
0.484 |
39.2 |
42 |
2.8 |
|
Abilene Longhorns |
380 |
336 |
0.561 |
45.5 |
44 |
(1.5) |
|
Virginia Patriots |
395 |
297 |
0.639 |
51.7 |
47 |
(4.7) |
|
Lafontaine Park Diamonds |
413 |
391 |
0.527 |
42.7 |
45 |
2.3 |
|
Port Richey Sandcranes |
323 |
466 |
0.325 |
26.3 |
31 |
4.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MAYS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aspen Rainmakers |
354 |
287 |
0.603 |
48.9 |
48 |
(0.9) |
|
Boston Braves |
285 |
424 |
0.311 |
25.2 |
31 |
5.8 |
|
Maryland Mounders |
422 |
327 |
0.625 |
50.6 |
51 |
0.4 |
|
Northwoods Moose |
354 |
424 |
0.411 |
33.3 |
26 |
(7.3) |
|
Taggart Titans |
364 |
413 |
0.437 |
35.4 |
34 |
(1.4) |
|
West Oakland Wolverines |
363 |
336 |
0.539 |
43.6 |
45 |
1.4 |