Williamsburg Gazette July 1, 2003

 

 

Last month I submitted a Moneyball article. To follow up, this month I will offer two spreadsheets, the first documenting the dollars in millions spent per win by each team. By a good margin, the top teams continue to be Portland and San Bernadino in the Ruth Division, home of the beloved Burgesses who are only a tad extravagant by this measure. Virginia, LaFontaine Park, Syracuse, and Greenville all deserve honorable mention. Toontown appears to have slipped just a bit, but they are still above average.

The 2nd spreadsheet applies the baseball version of the Pythagorean Theorem to all Brassworld teams. Briefly, it has been shown that a teamís winning percentage is well approximated by the ratio of its runs scored squared to its runs scores squared + opponents runs scored squared. It has an average error of 4 games or so in a 162 game season; a greater deviation at 81 games might be expected. If a team is overperforming (Greenville) that may be its manager or just good luck; perhaps in the 2nd half Syracuse (which is performing as expected) might widen its lead and Greenville may tumble towards .500 ball. The Black Sox have a league best 23-10 record in one run games; can that hold up over the rest of the year? Waukesha, like the Sky Chiefs, appears to be the real deal and should battle Syracuse down to the wire, all things being equal.

In the Ruth, Toontown for all its domination, appears to be underperforming; either take the manager down a notch or blame it on luck and watch the Rabbits get even better in the 2nd half. Not only having a shrewd GM, Portland likewise has stretched every run en route to a record 4 wins better than expected. Portlandís manager has made the GM look even better. Other teams of interest include Port Richey and Boston; both of these teams despite being saddled with high costs/win have done better than expected. Give the managers some credit for making best of a motley crew of overpaid ballplayers. Finally the worst luck/managerial performance goes to Northwoods---playing 7 games worse than would be expected. One run game record is poor, 5-11, but even if it were 8-8, the Moose manager still has some Ďsplainin to do.

 

MONEYBALL

 

 

 

BRASSWORLD 2003

American

 

 

COBB

Contract$

Wins

$$$/Win

Silver Sluggers

25.6

29

0.88

Greenville Black Sox

42.8

46

0.88

Rivendell Knights

49.4

40

1.24

West Bend Rocks

42.8

34

1.26

Syracuse Sky Chiefs

48.7

52

0.94

Waukesha Keglers

48.6

48

1.01

 

 

 

 

Total for Cobb division

257.9

249

1.04

 

 

 

 

RUTH

 

 

 

Plum Island Greenheads

44.8

45

1.00

Gotham City Gargoyles

39.3

34

1.16

Portland Grays

25.4

37

0.69

San Bernadino Stampede

25.1

36

0.70

Toontown Rabbits

48.1

51

0.94

Williamsburg Burgesses

39.2

38

1.03

MONEYBALL

 

 

 

Total forRuth division

221.9

241

0.92

National

 

 

 

 

AARON

Contract$

Wins

$$$/Win

 

Annadale Anteaters

36.4

41

0.89

 

Buckeye Eclipse

37.9

42

0.90

 

Abilene Longhorns

48.1

44

1.09

 

Virginia Patriots

41.1

47

0.87

 

Lafontaine Park Diamonds

40

45

0.89

 

Port Richey Sandcranes

31.7

28

1.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aaron Division Totals

235.2

247

0.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAYS

 

 

 

 

Aspen Rainmakers

47.7

48

0.99

 

Boston Braves

35.1

31

1.13

 

Maryland Mounders

47

51

0.92

 

Northwoods Moose

25.7

26

0.99

 

Taggart Titans

31.6

34

0.93

 

West Oakland Wolverines

44.1

45

0.98

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mays Division Totals

231.2

235

0.98

 

 

 

 

Total Value of Contracts

946.2

 

Average per team

39.425

 

Average # of Wins

40.5

 

Average $$$/Win

0.97

 

Standard deviation

0.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BRASSWORLD 2003

 

 

x

x

x

x

Pythagorean Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

COBB

Runs

OppRuns

Proj W-L%

Proj Wins

Real Wins

Manager quality J

Silver Sluggers

386

476

0.397

32.1

29

(3.1)

Greenville Black Sox

268

290

0.461

37.3

46

8.7

Rivendell Knights

410

418

0.490

39.7

40

0.3

West Bend Rocks

326

351

0.463

37.5

34

(3.5)

Syracuse Sky Chiefs

481

362

0.638

51.7

52

0.3

Waukesha Keglers

407

333

0.599

48.5

48

(0.5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUTH

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plum Island Greenheads

397

351

0.561

45.5

45

(0.5)

Gotham City Gargoyles

397

441

0.448

36.3

34

(2.3)

Portland Grays

344

419

0.403

32.6

37

4.4

San Bernadino Stampede

319

368

0.429

34.8

36

1.2

Toontown Rabbits

427

287

0.689

55.8

51

(4.8)

Williamsburg Burgesses

384

408

0.470

38.0

38

(0.0)

Pythagorean Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

AARON

Runs

OppRun

Proj W-L%

Proj Wins

Real Wins

Manager quality J

Annadale Anteaters

347

327

0.530

42.9

41

(1.9)

Buckeye Eclipse

439

453

0.484

39.2

42

2.8

Abilene Longhorns

380

336

0.561

45.5

44

(1.5)

Virginia Patriots

395

297

0.639

51.7

47

(4.7)

Lafontaine Park Diamonds

413

391

0.527

42.7

45

2.3

Port Richey Sandcranes

323

466

0.325

26.3

31

4.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAYS

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aspen Rainmakers

354

287

0.603

48.9

48

(0.9)

Boston Braves

285

424

0.311

25.2

31

5.8

Maryland Mounders

422

327

0.625

50.6

51

0.4

Northwoods Moose

354

424

0.411

33.3

26

(7.3)

Taggart Titans

364

413

0.437

35.4

34

(1.4)

West Oakland Wolverines

363

336

0.539

43.6

45

1.4