Sunday
paper
San Bernardino – Do you check the stats of your players in the
Sunday newspaper? I sometimes do, and I usually start at the bottom and work my
way up. Most often I’ll just glance quickly through the stats but every so
often, especially when the major league season is at a point like ¼, 1/3 or ½
complete, as it’s easy to quickly compute what the approximate season totals
would be. The ML season is approximately ¼ complete now so I thought I’d take a
closer look at how my players are doing, to give me an idea as to how much
better or worse they may be next year. I know it’s very early, and I’ve
actually geared my team to hopefully begin competing for my division title the
year after next, but it’s fun anyway. The below stats are as of Sunday, May 18th.
At firstbase I’ve got Doug Mientkiewicz. He’s
beginning to heat up with Minnesota (though he sprained his ankle on Sunday)
and is currently at .274:avg/3:hr/0:sb, and projects to 46 doubles. However, down on the
farm there’s Justin Morneau who hit .329/6/0 in AA before being promoted
to AAA where he’s hitting .311/6/0. Plus, there’s a chance he’ll get the call
now that Doug is injured, though I personally hope they leave him in AAA for
now. The future looks good at 1B.
Secondbase has Mark Ellis (.262/3/0 … projects to 54
doubles). He’s been in a slight slump lately but if he keeps playing solid
defense he’ll still be valuable. Desi Relaford (.308/3/6 … has .387 obp)
backs him up, plus the future may bring Rickie Weeks who’s currently at
.500/16/27 in just 158 AB’s in college, which are incredible numbers! The only
problem is that he may be switched to the OF once drafted this Spring. But then
that may prove to be helpful for me as RF is a trouble spot as you’ll read
below.
Another trouble spot may be thirdbase. I still believe that Aramis
Ramirez (.238/2/0) will be an exceptional offensive force, but he’s off to
a poor start this year. He’s still just 24 yrs old, though. On the bright side,
Chad Tracy is hitting .357/3/0 with a .414 obp in the minors.
Shortstop needs little mentioning, other than that Alex
Rodriguez (.308/11/6) plays there. I’m in great shape there for years.
The outfield is looking pretty good, though rightfield may be a
trouble spot. Brad Wilkerson (.296/5/3 … projects to 49 doubles) is in
left and has also appeared in CF, RF and 1B. Corey Patterson (.319/8/8 …
on pace for 12 triples) is a pleasant surprise in center, though this is what
was expected from him from the Cubs. If this is the real Corey Patterson then
I’ll be in very good shape there. Rightfield is a trouble spot unless Gary
Matthews, Jr (.204/2/0) gets straightened out. I’ve also got Jose
Guillen (.324/7/0 … .357 obp) out there, but I don’t expect him to keep
those stats up for the whole year. And even if he does he’ll be a free agent so
I may not be able to retain him. Gene Kingsale (.270/0/0 … .341 obp) is
another outfielder but he’s not necessarily a RF’er and despite him being one
of the better hitters for average with the Tigers they have reduced his playing
time. Down on the farm I’ve got Coco Crisp (.341/0/14 … .451 obp) but
he’s not really a RF’er either, and I’m not sure if the Indians are going to
give him a shot. At least not this year, though he may become a valuable player
in another year or two.
Ramon Hernandez (.306/4/0) has turned into a very good
catcher, and though he’s hitting above his head a bit right now, I don’t
believe he’ll end up much lower than around .270 with double figure HR’s. Plus
he’s thrown out 40% of the runners trying to steal on him. He’s proving to be a
very solid catcher, both offensively and defensively. And just in case, Jeff
Mathis, a top prospect with Anaheim is hitting .299/4/3 in the minors.
The mound may need some work, but it’s not in terrible shape. In
fact with a little luck or a good draft pick or two (or maybe a trade) it could
become quite good and be the strength of my team as I want it to be. Randy
Wolf (3.24:era/1.11:whip/.208:baa) leads the staff and looks to be the ace I hoped
for in him. Following him is Kyle Lohse (3.22/1.09/.222) who is
producing far better than I had expected. I’ve seen him a number of times on TV
and I don’t think it’s a fluke. This guy has the ability to be that good,
consistently, and maybe even better! After that my starters are in trouble. Jeff
Suppan (3.32/1.33/.269) is doing well but I don’t expect him to continue
that pace all season. But with his good start he may end up with an ERA in the
high 3’s or low 4’s, with a lot of IP’s which could be very useful as the #3 or
#4 starter. The disappointment is Jon Garland (6.10/1.50/.278 … projects
to 35 hra). He’s still young with some very good stuff so there’s hope. And I’m
certainly hoping. But as I said I drafted this team to hopefully become a
contender in our third season so I and Jon have time. Depending on whether or
not Jeremy Affeldt (4.33/1.33/.281) can control his finger blister
problems he could or could not become a very good starter. I’ve seen him a few
times and when the blister is not affecting him he is quite good. Others such
as Al Leiter put together some very good years once he got his blister problems
under control. Hopefully Affeldt will be able to control his problem sooner
than later. Ryan Drese (7.65/2.35/.341) looks to be gone but there’s
hope for the future in the minors. Jimmy Gobble (2.92, 5-3 record) is
having a good year in the minors and though Jose Torres (4.68, 3-2) is
struggling a bit he’s had some very good appearances and is still projected as
a top prospect for the Angels.
The bullpen is in good hands with Keith Foulke
(2.49/0.83/.182 … on pace for 42 SV’s), but there’s not much after that. Ray
King (3.18/1.65/.246), Mike Crudale (0.00/1.69/.238 in just 5 ML
games) and Kelly Wunsch (0.00/0.63/.053) are all serviceable and form a
decent setup core as a unit, but none have enough strengths (despite some very
good ERA’s so far) to be considered a stud reliever and, since my team is to be
built around a solid pitching staff I’ll have to upgrade them. They’ll be great
as situational, one or two batter type pitchers, but I’ll have to get one or
two solid setup men for Foulke.
All in all my offense is looking pretty good with just a couple
of positions I’ll need to improve upon in the next year or two. My starting
staff has a pretty good base to build upon. Just a good draft pick or two
and/or the emergence of a minor leaguer and it should become a real strength
for my team. The bullpen is the weak link. There is some depth with decent
stats but it’s too situational. This is where most of my attention will go to,
though it’s a position I do not like to use high draft picks for. This may take
some time, work and luck.
Of course all this may look very different in a few months. But
it’s fun to try and look into what the future may hold.
Tom Fish