Forecasting
Pitcher Performance
The 2003 season saw 40
pitchers at age 23 or younger. This group saw 7 of the 40 pitchers
reach 10 wins or more, but only 16 pitchers with an earned run average of 4.00
or less. In fact, 21 pitchers out of the group of 40 had an earned
run average of 4.50 or higher, indicating more seasoning or developmental time
or an inability to function at the major league level.
Evaluating or forecasting
rookie pitchers, or those with less than three years of professional league
experience beyond Double A levels, requires three
primary indicators – dominance, command, and control ratios. These
abilities fall outside of park effects and league averages to an overwhelming
degree, focusing solely on the talents of the pitcher in question.
Dominance (Strikeout)
Ratio
Dom = (k*9)/ip
The 2003 starting pitchers
with the highest Dominance Ratios include: Pedro Martinez, Javier
Vazquez, Mark Prior, Randy Johnson, Jason Schmidt, Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb,
Kerry Wood, Johan Santana, and Curt Schilling.
These pitchers have dominance
rates of 8.50 strikeouts per 9 innings of higher. The strikeout
ratio provides the biggest indication of whether a pitcher has a prime career
ahead of him. The strikeout pitcher allows fewer runs by virtue of
his ability to pitch out of potentially game-altering situations.
He possesses an arsenal of pitches that trouble or give hitters a high degree
of difficulty at the plate. Most of all, the strikeout pitcher has
a longer career on average than others at the position. These
pitchers are especially effective in their late thirties, as they’ve learned to
rely more heavily on their secondary pitchers.
Pitchers without high
strikeout ratios require more emphasis on control and team defensive ability.
They see higher fluctuations in their earned run average and strand
rates.
The danger with strikeout
pitchers comes from wildness or inconsistency. These
pitchers often “throw” more than “pitch” in the earlier parts of their career,
leading to instances where they frequently serve as their own worst enemies.
Johan Santana experienced
horrific 2000 and 2001 seasons because he couldn’t control his
pitches. With his breakthrough in 2003, Santana stands as the best
left-handed power pitcher in the game, perhaps only behind a healthy Randy
Johnson.
Having the pitcher with a
high strikeout ratio makes winning championships much easier, also providing
less stress and utilization of the bullpen figures. This collection
of top strikeout pitchers posted a 121-81 record over the 2003
season.
Control (Walk) Ratio
Con = (bb*9)/ip
The 2003 starting pitchers
with excellent control ratios include: Sidney Ponson,
Kevin Brown, Brad Penny, Esteban Loaiza, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, and Mike Mussina. These pitchers earned a 114-59 record over
the 2003 season.
The best control pitchers
also have moderate or great strikeout ability, but they survive by their
ability to throw strikes, issuing a low rate of bases on balls.
The control pitcher differs from
the strikeout artist in that he relies more heavily on team
defense. These pitchers allow a higher amount of hits per 9 innings
because they don’t possess authoritative pitchers. They survive by
mental awareness and deception as much as the quality of their
pitches.
Command Ratio
Com = k/bb
Looking at strikeout or walk
ratios in isolation, rather than as two essential components, misses the mark
in observing pitchers. Some pitchers like Kazuhisa Ishii and Oliver
Perez have excellent dominance ratios but have difficulty finding the plate
with a majority of their pitchers. A similar or equivalent number
of walks and strikeouts diminish the power component of a pitcher.
Ishii and Perez combined for a 13-17 record. They threw such a high
number of pitches per game that they rarely made it past the fifth or sixth
innings.
Pitchers with similar walk
and strikeout totals rarely have long careers in the major leagues.
Ishii and Perez receive more opportunities than other pitchers because of their
high strikeout totals. Managers hope for a slight mechanical
adjustment or pitch selection measure that will diminish their liabilities.
Desired Indicator Levels
Dominance = 8.5 or more
Control = 2.75 or less
Command = 2.5 or more
Rookie Pitching Stars
Pitchers with these indicators levels have a great opportunity for success in
the major leagues. The best pitchers for 2004, or the ones with the greatest
upside or expectations, include
Taking Jackson or Wagner is
one of the best decisions you can make in any 2004 draft. Even if
they don’t develop, they possess the skills and attributes necessary for big
league success. Taking a flyer on pitchers with these expectations or
levels of talents always comes across as a “no brainer,”
a decision too good to pass up.
Top Strikeout Pitchers
(Age)
Edwin Jackson (20)
Ryan Wagner (21)
Oliver Perez (22)
Rich Harden (22)
Francisco Rodriguez (22)
Mark Prior (23)
Josh Beckett (23)
Top Control Pitchers (Age)
Mark Prior (23)
Jason Davis (23)
Jimmy Gobble (22)
Danny Harem (23)
C.C. Sabathia (23)
Top Command Pitchers (Age)
Mark Prior (23)
Josh Beckett (23)
Francisco Rodriguez (22)
Dontrelle Willis (22)
C.C. Sabathia
(23)
Ryan Wagner (21)
Rankings
Top Rookie Pitchers
1. Edwin Jackson
2. Ryan Wagner
3.
4. Rich Harden
5. Dontrelle Willis
6. Oscar Villarreal
7. Jimmy Gobble
8. Jeremy Bonderman
9. Jesse Foppert
10. Jerome Williams