Moneyball 2004-New and Improved
Last season I submitted a moneyball analysis based on wins per millions spent. This
year, I will refine the analysis to reflect that we all have to spend $25
million dollars at least and the supposition that a team of replacement level
players will have a .300 winning percentage. The idea is that a club that
spends $25 million should have an expected winning percentage of .300. This
will better measure front office efficiency. The .300 winning percentage is
sort of a rough average of how expansion teams do (1962 Mets, 1969 Expos) and
then also mix in the 2003 Tigers. As Brassworld matures, a different minimum
winning percentage could be used. The formula will be:
Winning percentage - .300 X
162 / club payroll- $25 million
This calculation gives a much
wider spread of our GMs’ astuteness as opposed to last years calculations where
we as individuals were more clustered together.
This year Virginia GM Mike Bardos
is clearly the pride of Brassworld, at least at the half way mark with a
marginal win rate of 3.5 wins per extra million spent over 25 million per 162
games. While other GMs have better ratios, none is in first place. If
Other teams of note include
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Moneyball 2004, Mid-Season |
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Actual % |
replacem |
difference |
marg wins |
payroll |
min payroll |
difference |
MW/MIL |
COBB |
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0.63 |
0.3 |
0.33 |
53.46 |
53.35 |
25 |
28.35 |
1.886 |
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0.605 |
0.3 |
0.305 |
49.86 |
49.86 |
25 |
24.86 |
2.006 |
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0.457 |
0.3 |
0.157 |
25.434 |
53.93 |
25 |
28.93 |
0.879 |
Silver |
0.457 |
0.3 |
0.157 |
25.434 |
30.4 |
25 |
5.4 |
4.710 |
Rivendell |
0.346 |
0.3 |
0.046 |
7.452 |
36.68 |
25 |
11.68 |
0.638 |
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0.321 |
0.3 |
0.021 |
3.402 |
43.85 |
25 |
18.85 |
0.180 |
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averages |
0.469 |
0.3 |
0.169 |
27.432 |
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44.68 |
25 |
19.68 |
1.394 |
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RUTH |
Actual % |
replacem |
diff |
marg wins |
payroll |
min pay |
diff |
MW/MP |
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0.728 |
0.3 |
0.428 |
69.336 |
53.67 |
25 |
28.67 |
2.418 |
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0.679 |
0.3 |
0.379 |
61.398 |
52.71 |
25 |
27.71 |
2.216 |
San Bernadino |
0.543 |
0.3 |
0.243 |
39.366 |
31.93 |
25 |
6.93 |
5.681 |
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0.519 |
0.3 |
0.219 |
35.478 |
41.59 |
25 |
16.59 |
2.139 |
Toontown |
0.494 |
0.3 |
0.194 |
31.428 |
46.43 |
25 |
21.43 |
1.467 |
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0.318 |
0.3 |
0.018 |
2.916 |
38.18 |
25 |
13.18 |
0.221 |
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averages |
0.547 |
0.3 |
0.247 |
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44.09 |
25 |
19.09 |
2.095 |
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39.987 |
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AARON |
Actual % |
replacem |
diff |
marg wins |
payroll |
min pay |
diff |
MW/MP |
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0.679 |
0.3 |
0.379 |
61.398 |
42.33 |
25 |
17.33 |
3.543 |
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0.642 |
0.3 |
0.342 |
55.404 |
46.04 |
25 |
21.04 |
2.633 |
Annadale |
0.568 |
0.3 |
0.268 |
43.416 |
56.7 |
25 |
31.7 |
1.370 |
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0.481 |
0.3 |
0.181 |
29.322 |
41.1 |
25 |
16.1 |
1.821 |
Buckeye |
0.395 |
0.3 |
0.095 |
15.39 |
30.76 |
25 |
5.76 |
2.672 |
Port
Richey |
0.358 |
0.3 |
0.058 |
9.396 |
32.93 |
25 |
7.93 |
1.185 |
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averages |
0.521 |
0.3 |
0.221 |
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41.64 |
25 |
16.64 |
2.146 |
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35.721 |
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MAYS |
Actual % |
replacem |
diff |
marg wins |
payroll |
min pay |
diff |
MW/MP |
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0.519 |
0.3 |
0.219 |
35.478 |
54.57 |
25 |
29.57 |
1.200 |
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0.506 |
0.3 |
0.206 |
33.372 |
51.78 |
25 |
26.78 |
1.246 |
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0.506 |
0.3 |
0.206 |
33.372 |
49.83 |
25 |
24.83 |
1.344 |
Taggart |
0.481 |
0.3 |
0.181 |
29.322 |
44.83 |
25 |
19.83 |
1.479 |
Northwoods |
0.37 |
0.3 |
0.07 |
11.34 |
25.2 |
25 |
0.2 |
56.700 |
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0.37 |
0.3 |
0.07 |
11.34 |
36.61 |
25 |
11.61 |
0.977 |
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averages |
0.459 |
0.3 |
0.159 |
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43.80 |
25 |
18.80 |
1.367 |
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25.704 |
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Total
Brass average |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
32.4 |
43.55 |
25 |
18.55 |
1.747 |