Moneyball 2004-New and Improved

 

Last season I submitted a moneyball analysis based on wins per millions spent. This year, I will refine the analysis to reflect that we all have to spend $25 million dollars at least and the supposition that a team of replacement level players will have a .300 winning percentage. The idea is that a club that spends $25 million should have an expected winning percentage of .300. This will better measure front office efficiency. The .300 winning percentage is sort of a rough average of how expansion teams do (1962 Mets, 1969 Expos) and then also mix in the 2003 Tigers. As Brassworld matures, a different minimum winning percentage could be used. The formula will be:

 

Winning percentage - .300 X 162 / club payroll- $25 million

 

This calculation gives a much wider spread of our GMs astuteness as opposed to last years calculations where we as individuals were more clustered together.

 

This year Virginia GM Mike Bardos is clearly the pride of Brassworld, at least at the half way mark with a marginal win rate of 3.5 wins per extra million spent over 25 million per 162 games. While other GMs have better ratios, none is in first place. If Virginia falls into second place, the LaFontaine Park GM Daniel Valois may snag his second consecutive Billy Beane award as his ratio is otherwise highest for any division leader or second place team. Other strong contenders for Billy Beane include Portlands Stefan Feuerherdt and Plum Islands Henry Vance. Plum Island closely trails Portland. The division winner here can easily argue that a ratio only closely trailing LaFontaine Parks but with a winning percentage 50 points higher merits recognition.

 

Other teams of note include San Bernardino and Silver. If either of these teams maintain their marginal win rates of 4.5-5.5 extra wins per million spent as they spend more money, they will bury all other teams in future years. Right now, these teams are at #2 and #3 in bank reserves. Northwoods merits an asterisk, as they have the highest ratio, but also a bad team; suggest a Carl Pohldad award as the most efficiently maintained also-ran, which certainly lends respectability to the GM and hope for the future.

 

 

 

 

Moneyball 2004, Mid-Season

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual %

replacem

difference

marg wins

payroll

min payroll

difference

MW/MIL

COBB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltimore

0.63

0.3

0.33

53.46

53.35

25

28.35

1.886

Syracuse

0.605

0.3

0.305

49.86

49.86

25

24.86

2.006

Greenville

0.457

0.3

0.157

25.434

53.93

25

28.93

0.879

Silver

0.457

0.3

0.157

25.434

30.4

25

5.4

4.710

Rivendell

0.346

0.3

0.046

7.452

36.68

25

11.68

0.638

Waukesha

0.321

0.3

0.021

3.402

43.85

25

18.85

0.180

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

averages

0.469

0.3

0.169

27.432

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

44.68

25

19.68

1.394

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUTH

Actual %

replacem

diff

marg wins

payroll

min pay

diff

MW/MP

Portland

0.728

0.3

0.428

69.336

53.67

25

28.67

2.418

Plum Island

0.679

0.3

0.379

61.398

52.71

25

27.71

2.216

San Bernadino

0.543

0.3

0.243

39.366

31.93

25

6.93

5.681

Gotham City

0.519

0.3

0.219

35.478

41.59

25

16.59

2.139

Toontown

0.494

0.3

0.194

31.428

46.43

25

21.43

1.467

Williamsburg

0.318

0.3

0.018

2.916

38.18

25

13.18

0.221

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

averages

0.547

0.3

0.247

 

44.09

25

19.09

2.095

 

 

 

 

39.987

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AARON

Actual %

replacem

diff

marg wins

payroll

min pay

diff

MW/MP

Virginia

0.679

0.3

0.379

61.398

42.33

25

17.33

3.543

LaFontaine Park

0.642

0.3

0.342

55.404

46.04

25

21.04

2.633

Annadale

0.568

0.3

0.268

43.416

56.7

25

31.7

1.370

Tampa Bay

0.481

0.3

0.181

29.322

41.1

25

16.1

1.821

Buckeye

0.395

0.3

0.095

15.39

30.76

25

5.76

2.672

Port Richey

0.358

0.3

0.058

9.396

32.93

25

7.93

1.185

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

averages

0.521

0.3

0.221

 

41.64

25

16.64

2.146

 

 

 

 

35.721

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAYS

Actual %

replacem

diff

marg wins

payroll

min pay

diff

MW/MP

West Oakland

0.519

0.3

0.219

35.478

54.57

25

29.57

1.200

Maryland

0.506

0.3

0.206

33.372

51.78

25

26.78

1.246

Savannah

0.506

0.3

0.206

33.372

49.83

25

24.83

1.344

Taggart

0.481

0.3

0.181

29.322

44.83

25

19.83

1.479

Northwoods

0.37

0.3

0.07

11.34

25.2

25

0.2

56.700

Aspen

0.37

0.3

0.07

11.34

36.61

25

11.61

0.977

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

averages

0.459

0.3

0.159

 

43.80

25

18.80

1.367

 

 

 

 

25.704

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Brass average

0.5

0.3

0.2

32.4

43.55

25

18.55

1.747