Pythagorean Wins & Losses, Mid-Season 2004

As has been demonstrated, there is a mathematical relationship between runs scored and runs allowed and expected winning percentage. Last year, most teams fell within a margin of error, but there were a few outliers and these did help to forecast the reminder of the season. For example, last year at the midpoint, Greenville slightly trailed Waukesha but by season’s end, luck evened out and Waukesha finished 10 games ahead of Greenville as predicted. Differences from the calculated W-L % and actual % are accounted for by luck or in game managerial skill.

At the mid point of Brassworld 2004, I have compiled a similar tabulation. This year, there are no significant outliers thus all teams are performing essentially as expected; still, all division leadership and many playoff berth races are tight enough that a small, ordinary change in luck could make for changes in division champions and wild card teams.

Of division leaders, only Baltimore could expect a little help by season’s end and have a slightly larger lead. Portland, West Oakland, and Virginia all own leads that could be attributed to luck. If all luck was completely erased and all made equal, LaFontaine Park and Maryland would be division winners by a nose and Portland would be in essential dead heat with Plum Island. Tampa Bay shows a net -7.5 game deficit to Savannah due to luck; clearly, here is one wild card race that bears watching. Savannah is ahead now, but if there were neutral luck, Tampa Bay would be ahead by 5 games. Taggart too would be ahead of Savannah with all luck even, but they would be behind Tampa Bay.

In the AL, Gotham City, if it gets the luck it’s due, should have no problem maintaining its lead over Silver and Greenville for the last playoff spot.

Finally, I can’t help but notice that Williamsburg appears to have the worst manager. Yet, this may be due to a nasty home/road split. We are 12 games better at home. Our starters are mostly horrible with a better pen that does have to be managed and alas, I have not made a SuperHAL for the bullpen this year. They have also the worst one run game record at 6-25; with normal luck in these games, WIL could be 6 games or so better. How comforting to know my team really is not as bad as it appears; it should be 34-47 with

normal luck, not 28-53.

Pythagorean Wins and Losses 2004 Mid-season
Brassworld
COBB	win %	runs for	OR	expect %	expected wins	Actual Wins	Difference
Baltimore	0.63	485	371	0.631	51.10	51	-0.10
Syracuse	0.605	434	380	0.566	45.85	49	3.15
Greenville	0.457	328	374	0.435	35.22	37	1.78
Silver	0.457	390	417	0.467	37.79	37	-0.79
Rivendell	0.346	360	505	0.337	27.29	28	0.71
Waukesha	0.321	345	450	0.370	29.99	26	-3.99
averages		2342	2497	0.468	37.91	38.5	0.59
						38.07
RUTH
Portland	0.728	434	302	0.674	54.57	59	4.43
Plum Island	0.679	401	280	0.672	54.45	55	0.55
San Bernardino	0.543	394	360	0.545	44.15	44	-0.15
Gotham City	0.519	440	389	0.561	45.46	42	-3.46
Toontown	0.494	424	445	0.476	38.54	40	1.46
Williamsburg	0.346	336	393	0.422	34.21	28	-6.21
averages		2429	2169	0.556	45.07	44.67	-0.40
AARON
Virginia	0.679	371	289	0.622	50.41	55	4.59
LaFontaine Park	0.642	428	315	0.649	52.54	52	-0.54
Annadale	0.568	338	316	0.534	43.22	46	2.78
Tampa Bay	0.481	349	331	0.526	42.64	39	-3.64
Buckeye	0.395	391	424	0.460	37.23	32	-5.23
Port Richey	0.358	317	445	0.337	27.27	29	1.73
averages		2194	2120	0.517	41.89	42.17	0.28
MAYS
West Oakland	0.519	388	362	0.535	43.30	42	-1.30
Maryland	0.506	386	347	0.553	44.80	41	-3.80
Savannah	0.506	357	398	0.446	36.11	41	4.89
Taggart	0.481	374	392	0.477	38.60	39	0.40
Northwoods	0.37	287	388	0.354	28.65	30	1.35
Aspen	0.37	324	408	0.387	31.33	30	-1.33
averages		2116	2295	0.459	37.22	37.17	-0.05