Pythagorean Wins & Losses, Mid-Season 2004

 

As has been demonstrated, there is a mathematical relationship between runs scored and runs allowed and expected winning percentage. Last year, most teams fell within a margin of error, but there were a few outliers and these did help to forecast the reminder of the season. For example, last year at the midpoint, Greenville slightly trailed Waukesha but by seasonís end, luck evened out and Waukesha finished 10 games ahead of Greenville as predicted. Differences from the calculated W-L % and actual % are accounted for by luck or in game managerial skill.

 

At the mid point of Brassworld 2004, I have compiled a similar tabulation. This year, there are no significant outliers thus all teams are performing essentially as expected; still, all division leadership and many playoff berth races are tight enough that a small, ordinary change in luck could make for changes in division champions and wild card teams.

 

Of division leaders, only Baltimore could expect a little help by seasonís end and have a slightly larger lead. Portland, West Oakland, and Virginia all own leads that could be attributed to luck. If all luck was completely erased and all made equal, LaFontaine Park and Maryland would be division winners by a nose and Portland would be in essential dead heat with Plum Island. Tampa Bay shows a net -7.5 game deficit to Savannah due to luck; clearly, here is one wild card race that bears watching. Savannah is ahead now, but if there were neutral luck, Tampa Bay would be ahead by 5 games. Taggart too would be ahead of Savannah with all luck even, but they would be behind Tampa Bay.

 

In the AL, Gotham City, if it gets the luck itís due, should have no problem maintaining its lead over Silver and Greenville for the last playoff spot.

 

Finally, I canít help but notice that Williamsburg appears to have the worst manager. Yet, this may be due to a nasty home/road split. We are 12 games better at home. Our starters are mostly horrible with a better pen that does have to be managed and alas, I have not made a SuperHAL for the bullpen this year. They have also the worst one run game record at 6-25; with normal luck in these games, WIL could be 6 games or so better. How comforting to know my team really is not as bad as it appears; it should be 34-47 with

normal luck, not 28-53.

Pythagorean Wins and Losses 2004 Mid-season

 

 

 

Brassworld

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COBB

win %

runs for

OR

expect %

expected wins

Actual Wins

Difference

Baltimore

0.63

485

371

0.631

51.10

51

-0.10

Syracuse

0.605

434

380

0.566

45.85

49

3.15

Greenville

0.457

328

374

0.435

35.22

37

1.78

Silver

0.457

390

417

0.467

37.79

37

-0.79

Rivendell

0.346

360

505

0.337

27.29

28

0.71

Waukesha

0.321

345

450

0.370

29.99

26

-3.99

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

averages

 

2342

2497

0.468

37.91

38.5

0.59

 

 

 

 

 

 

38.07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUTH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portland

0.728

434

302

0.674

54.57

59

4.43

Plum Island

0.679

401

280

0.672

54.45

55

0.55

San Bernardino

0.543

394

360

0.545

44.15

44

-0.15

Gotham City

0.519

440

389

0.561

45.46

42

-3.46

Toontown

0.494

424

445

0.476

38.54

40

1.46

Williamsburg

0.346

336

393

0.422

34.21

28

-6.21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

averages

 

2429

2169

0.556

45.07

44.67

-0.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AARON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Virginia

0.679

371

289

0.622

50.41

55

4.59

LaFontaine Park

0.642

428

315

0.649

52.54

52

-0.54

Annadale

0.568

338

316

0.534

43.22

46

2.78

Tampa Bay

0.481

349

331

0.526

42.64

39

-3.64

Buckeye

0.395

391

424

0.460

37.23

32

-5.23

Port Richey

0.358

317

445

0.337

27.27

29

1.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

averages

 

2194

2120

0.517

41.89

42.17

0.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAYS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Oakland

0.519

388

362

0.535

43.30

42

-1.30

Maryland

0.506

386

347

0.553

44.80

41

-3.80

Savannah

0.506

357

398

0.446

36.11

41

4.89

Taggart

0.481

374

392

0.477

38.60

39

0.40

Northwoods

0.37

287

388

0.354

28.65

30

1.35

Aspen

0.37

324

408

0.387

31.33

30

-1.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

averages

 

2116

2295

0.459

37.22

37.17

-0.05