BW National League Post View for 2006

 

If you recall for the last two BW seasons, I have prepared a BW National League Preview.  The first year results were surprisingly accurate considering the variables that could affect the results.

 

I used the following formulas:

 

For Expected Runs scored:

 

I used each hitter’s At Bats X OB X Slugging to arrive at expected runs.  I summed each teams hitting roster, and prorated it based upon 5640 At Bats (the average number of At Bats per team on my replay runs).

 

For Expected Runs Yielded:

 

I used each pitcher’s Innings X ERA to arrive at earned runs for each pitcher.  This was summed for all pitchers on the team’s roster and then prorated for 1450 innings (the average number of Innings per team on my replay runs). 

 

I then added a flat 72 runs per team for unearned runs since I did not consider each team’s defense in this review, although that may be a nice improvement.

 

Based upon the expected runs scored/runs yielded table I estimated the expected wins and losses using the Bill James Pythagorean formula.  Here is the expected wins table for the Aaron Division:

 

 

Team

Expected Wins

Expected Losses

Expected PCT

Actual Wins

Actual Losses

Actual PCT

Win Diff

Buckeye Eclipse

 

109

 

53

 

.676

 

99

63

.611

-10

Virginia Patriots

 

97

 

65

 

.602

 

77

85

.475

-20

Annadale Anteaters

 

87

 

75

 

.537

 

53

109

.327

-34

LaFontaine Park Diamonds

 

83

 

79

 

.513

 

84

78

.519

+1

Port Richey Sandcranes

 

76

 

86

 

.469

 

56

106

.346

-20

Taggart Titans

 

66

 

96

 

.409

 

54

108

.333

-12

 

Here are the expected wins for the Mays Division:

 

Team

Expected Wins

Expected Losses

Expected PCT

Actual Wins

Actual Losses

Actual PCT

Win Diff

Mansfield Mounties

 

107

55

.660

109

53

.673

+2

Northwoods Moose

106

56

.658

107

55

.660

+1

Montreal McGaffigans

 

 

106

56

.656

92

70

.568

-14

West Oakland Wolverines

 

104

58

.643

 

87

75

.537

-17

Aspen RainMakers

97

65

.601

85

77

.525

-12

Maryland Mounders

 

92

70

.571

 

87

75

.537

-5

 

 

 

It appears that my predictions were not too accurate for 2006 season especially for the Aaron Division and for my team Virginia, Port Richey, and for Annadale.  However, the standings were pretty close in the Mays Division.  Mansfield and Northwoods predictions were right on.  Got Daniel’s LaFontaine Park very close and William’s MMM pretty close!

 

I have a couple of ideas to refine this for next season by making sure that the Total Wins = Total Losses. 

 

Overall, it was a fun experience and a great BW season!

 

Thanks

Mike