BW National League Post View for 2006
If you recall for the last two BW seasons, I have prepared a BW National League Preview. The first year results were surprisingly accurate considering the variables that could affect the results.
I used the following formulas:
For Expected Runs scored:
I used each hitter’s At Bats X OB X Slugging to arrive at expected runs. I summed each teams hitting roster, and prorated it based upon 5640 At Bats (the average number of At Bats per team on my replay runs).
For Expected Runs Yielded:
I used each pitcher’s Innings X ERA to arrive at earned runs for each pitcher. This was summed for all pitchers on the team’s roster and then prorated for 1450 innings (the average number of Innings per team on my replay runs).
I then added a flat 72 runs per team for unearned runs since I did not consider each team’s defense in this review, although that may be a nice improvement.
Based upon the expected runs scored/runs yielded table I estimated the expected wins and losses using the Bill James Pythagorean formula. Here is the expected wins table for the Aaron Division:
Team 
Expected
Wins 
Expected
Losses 
Expected
PCT 
Actual
Wins 
Actual
Losses 
Actual
PCT 
Win
Diff 
Buckeye Eclipse 
109 
53 
.676 
99 
63 
.611 
10 

97 
65 
.602 
77 
85 
.475 
20 
Annadale Anteaters 
87 
75 
.537 
53 
109 
.327 
34 

83 
79 
.513 
84 
78 
.519 
+1 
Port Richey Sandcranes 
76 
86 
.469 
56 
106 
.346 
20 
Taggart Titans 
66 
96 
.409 
54 
108 
.333 
12 
Here are the expected wins for the Mays Division:
Team 
Expected
Wins 
Expected
Losses 
Expected
PCT 
Actual
Wins 
Actual
Losses 
Actual
PCT 
Win
Diff 

107 
55 
.660 
109 
53 
.673 
+2 
Northwoods Moose 
106 
56 
.658 
107 
55 
.660 
+1 

106 
56 
.656 
92 
70 
.568 
14 

104 
58 
.643 
87 
75 
.537 
17 
Aspen RainMakers 
97 
65 
.601 
85 
77 
.525 
12 

92 
70 
.571 
87 
75 
.537 
5 
It appears that my predictions were not too accurate for
2006 season especially for the Aaron Division and for my team Virginia, Port
Richey, and for Annadale. However, the standings were pretty close in
the Mays Division. Mansfield and Northwoods predictions were right on. Got Daniel’s
I have a couple of ideas to refine this for next season by making sure that the Total Wins = Total Losses.
Overall, it was a fun experience and a great BW season!
Thanks
Mike