BW National League Preview for 2006

 

With the reasonable accuracy of last year’s BW NL Preview, and in the spirit of fun, I would like to continue the NL Preview for upcoming 2006 season.

 

If you recall, my thought was to try to calculate the expected runs scored versus the expected runs yielded for each team.  This is the best predictor of wins and losses from a simple statistics view. 

 

Since starting lineups, rotations and defenses are not known at this time, lefty/righty numbers are not used, this review is simply a rough estimate based upon the entire preseason roster, just to give a preview of what might occur.  I performed a rough analysis based upon each team’s preseason roster as follows:

 

For Expected Runs scored:

 

I used each hitter’s At Bats X OB X Slugging to arrive at expected runs.  I summed each teams hitting roster, and prorated it based upon 5640 At Bats (the average number of At Bats per team on my replay runs).

 

For Expected Runs Yielded:

 

I used each pitcher’s Innings X ERA to arrive at earned runs for each pitcher.  This was summed for all pitchers on the team’s roster and then prorated for 1450 innings (the average number of Innings per team on my replay runs). 

 

I then added a flat 72 runs per team for unearned runs since I did not consider each team’s defense in this review, although that may be a nice improvement.

.

The resulting table for the BW Aaron Division follows:

 

Team

Expected Runs Scored

Expected Runs Yielded

Expected Run Differential

Buckeye Eclipse

 

964.3

 

667.4

 

296.9

 

Virginia Patriots

 

870.3

 

707.5

 

162.8

 

Annadale Anteaters

 

826.6

 

767.5

 

59.0

 

LaFontaine Park Diamonds

 

826.7

 

804.8

 

21.9

 

Port Richey Sandcranes

 

723.0

 

769.9

 

-46.9

 

Taggart Titans

 

734.5

 

882.5

 

-148.0

 

 

Here is the powerful Mays Division, note the powerhouses:

 

Team

Expected Runs Scored

Expected Runs Yielded

Expected Run Differential

Northwoods Moose

920.8

 

664.1

 

256.6

 

Montreal McGaffigans

 

905.4

 

655.1

 

250.3

 

Mansfield Mounties

 

878.7

 

630.5

 

248.3

 

West Oakland Wolverines

 

862.6

 

643.1

 

219.5

 

Aspen Rainmakers

839.0

 

683.9

 

155.1

 

Maryland Mounders

 

845.9

 

733.2

 

112.7

 

 

Based upon the expected runs scored/runs yielded table we can estimate the expected wins and losses using the Bill James Pythagorean formula.  Here is the expected wins table for the Aaron Division:

 

 

Team

Expected Wins

Expected Losses

Expected PCT

Buckeye Eclipse

 

109

 

53

 

.676

 

Virginia Patriots

 

97

 

65

 

.602

 

Annadale Anteaters

 

87

 

75

 

.537

 

LaFontaine Park Diamonds

 

83

 

79

 

.513

 

Port Richey Sandcranes

 

76

 

86

 

.469

 

Taggart Titans

 

66

 

96

 

.409

 

 

Here are the expected wins for the Mays Division:

 

Team

Expected Wins

Expected Losses

Expected PCT

Mansfield Mounties

 

107

55

.660

Northwoods Moose

106

56

.658

Montreal McGaffigans

 

 

106

56

.656

West Oakland Wolverines

 

104

58

.643

 

Aspen RainMakers

97

65

.601

Maryland Mounders

 

92

70

.571

 

 

So, as you can see, it appears to be a very competitive year once again in the NL of BW.  The Mays Division appears loaded with powerhouses!

 

Hope that you find this interesting.  The attached EXCEL is the detail that corresponds to these tables.   Your input to this process is appreciated.

 

Thanks

Mike

 

Complete Breakdown of Expected Win/Loss Calculation in Excel Spreadsheet Form.