Brassworld Pythagorean Results Mid season July 2005


As a reminder, the number of runs a team scores and allows generally allows for a fairly accurate prediction of its winning percentage. Random variation (i.e. luck) can account for up to 4 games + or Ė from the prediction; thatís not to say skill or lack thereof can not also account for deviations from the prediction. Usually, the deviation is larger to reliably suggest causes other than luck to be the reason for the deviation.


At mid season, fans of the Mansfield Mounties do have one thing to cheer about: this is the most efficient team in Brassworld. Their run differential suggests a win total of 16; they have in fact won 25 games. The manager is allocating the teams PAs and IPs wisely apparently realizing it makes no difference if one loses 6-0 or 16-0. Congratulations and a thousand pats on the back to the Mansfield manager I hope will be sufficient consolation to see him through till next year.


The Pythagorean results suggest a somewhat tighter race between Plum Island and Portland in the Ruth division. While 4 games separate the two teams in the standings, the Pythagorean analysis suggests the gap is a mere 2 games if all luck was even; a gap small enough to be bridged by a key acquisition. A first place finish in the Ruth likely assures home field advantage at least through the AL championship series.


Likewise, Gotham City has a 5 game lead on Williamsburg in the Ruth but the Pythagorean analysis is just about a dead heat between the 2 teams. If luck evens out or if the Williamsburg manager remembers to check for pitcher fatigue at least occasionally then maybe the Burgesses can sneak a 3rd place finish. There isnít as much at stake here as neither has much hope of catching the Portland/Plum Island leaders at least with their current squads.


Other results of note include Aspenís +4 edge in wins over predicted which also suggests attentive managing but like with Mansfield this gem of an effort is almost invisible on a miserable team. At least the Aspen manager is paying attention; the Baltimoreís squad manager appears to be mailing in his efforts as his poor squadís record is even worse than it should be.


Brassworld Pythagorean Results Mid Season 2005 Spreadsheet