Brassworld Pythagorean Results October
2005
As a reminder, the number of
runs a team scores and gives up by a mathematical formula can predict its
winning percentage generally by + or - 4 games. Deviations outside this range
are less likely attributed to luck and might have an organic cause. An excess
of games won over that predicted by the formula suggests an Earl Weaver or
Billy Martin like attention to the details of the game, such as knowledge of
the other team’s bench and your own limitations, or perhaps just pivotal use of
allowable Stratball techniques. A poorer record might result from a manager’s
inability to lay off the hard stuff while managing or might come about as
result of inattention due to a miserable season.
This year’s results show as
usual most teams within the predicted 4 games of the Pythagorean estimate. Two poor teams (Baltimore and
The better field managers
this year included several also-rans such as
Buckeye alone among the
playoff teams did a little better than predicted; that manager’s efforts could
account for an extra game won over what might have been due luck alone.